A couple of deadly bomb blasts in Volgograd in two days killing 30, coupled with disastrous floods in Far Eastern Russia were enough for the Russian President Vladimir Putin to change his years-old ritual of addressing the nation on New Year’s Eve from the Kremlin. For us Pakistanis, such events have become so common that even a series of blasts on festivals such as Eid may hardly affect our routine - as long as we don’t suffer directly. But for Russia, these events, especially the blasts, are national tragedies. Timing of the Volgograd bombings Russia is nearly a month away from holding the much awaited Winter Olympics in Sochi – a city close to the conflict-infested Caucasus region. But was the attack at this critical juncture a mere coincidence? It doesn’t look like it. Dokka Umarov, the Russian equivalent of some of the top terrorists of Pakistan and nicknamed 'Russia's Bin Laden', seems to have orchestrated the blasts – though no one, till date, has claimed responsibility. Umarov had already warned of attacking civilians in the wake of the Olympics, which according to him are being "held over the bones of innocent Muslims". He is also the self-proclaimed Emir of the Emirate of Caucasus (Imarat Kavkaz - IK), and vows to liberate the region from Russian oppression. Why did a couple of blasts shake Russia? Afer the infamous 1980 Olympics were boycotted by more than 60 states over the Soviet Afghan invasion, the Winter Olympics could help Russia improve its international image - this is an important event. Putin and his government have already come under the scanner for their controversial gay rights laws, possibly resulting in boycotts by a number of homosexual athletes. At this juncture, Russia can barely afford a slip up, and thus the Volgograd incident naturally raises a lot of questions. What are the options? The Russian Caucasus, especially Dagestan region, has a lot of similarities to Pakistan’s Waziristan. From people’s grievances against the state, to its treacherous terrains, the region has never been completely under Moscow’s authority. Russian security forces have conducted operations against the rebels in the region for more than two decades, but would Putin be willing to use the iron fist this time around? To me, that seems highly unlikely. Putin would be the last person wanting to expose Russia as a police state shortly before an international event. Furthermore, any use of force could invite an extreme reaction from the rebels and terrorists, probably resulting in further civilian causalities and raising question marks over hosting the Olympics. What next? Scores of Chechen fighters returning from Syria - alongside the Free Syrian Army and al Qaeda - are now hardened and trained warriors, creating a potential security dilemma for Moscow. Considering Russia’s unconditional support for the Syrian regime, returning recruits may automatically deem the government a potential target. But one fact, in my opinion, that shouldn’t be ignored is that in July last year, Russia successfully organised the University Games in Kazan without a hitch. Despite having major threats from the same groups, security arrangements proved that the government had an upper hand over the terrorists. After all, Putin, being an ex KGB man, knows his country’s security situation inside out. If he is successful in pulling off the Winter Olympics, he could do a lot of good to himself and to the image of his country. But if Putin fails, his leadership and prolonged reign in power could seriously be questioned by his own people.