The stage is all set for the battle of the General Elections 2018, with all major political parties eyeing the throne. Though we are more than a month away from the big day, the three leading parties, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), and the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) are all hoping to make the government in the centre as well as in their respective provinces. Given the dynamic circumstances of our political arena, it is almost impossible to predict a winner at this stage. Nonetheless, looking at the present situation, one can try to assess whether the new elections will bring the winds of change that we hopefully expect, or whether our democracy will shock further with its unpredictability. PML-N is still the favourite A recent survey conducted by The Economist has suggested the election will be in PML-N’s favour, and predicted that PML-N will form the government in the centre and in Punjab. Even a survey conducted by Gallup Pakistan suggested that PML-N remains the most popular party in the country, though Imran Khan’s PTI has caught up to second place. [caption id="" align="alignnone" width="600"] Voting intention polls conducted for the National Assembly since 2013. Photo: Wikipedia[/caption] PPP remain the underdogs While the surveys are in PML-N’s favour, ground realities are changing every second, especially as certain forces work to ensure that PML-N does not return with the same fervour. Strangely, as everyone focuses on PTI’s chances, no one is discussing the dark horse – PPP – which is very much still in the race. The PPP won around 40 National Assembly (NA) seats in the General Elections of 2013, making it the second largest party in the parliament. Unlike the previous elections where PPP was not allowed to run an election campaign in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P), this time the party is freely campaigning, which can bring in a victory of around eight to 10 seats in K-P. Likewise, being instrumental in toppling the PML-N from the government of Balochistan, the PPP has the chance of securing some seats from Balochistan as well. Additionally, the void left by the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) in Karachi and Hyderabad is surely going to benefit PPP too, giving it the opportunity to grab an additional 10 to 12 seats. Big win likely in NA for the PPP Unlike the previous General Elections, the PPP has improved its relationship with the powers that be, which is why winning 60 to 65 NA seats does not seem unlikely. If it manages to win 65 seats, it will be in the driving seat to form a coalition government either with PTI and independents, or with PML-N and Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA). The latter seems unlikely, for if the sources are to be believed, PML-N will not be sitting in a coalition government with the PPP. PTI’s chances are inflated Like always, PTI is sure it is going to sweep the elections, but once again, the reality on the ground is entirely different. In the previous elections, PTI was able to win a major chunk of seats from K-P. However, this victory was the result of the Taliban not allowing the Awami National Party (ANP) and PPP to campaign in K-P. As a result, PTI benefitted from the space left by the two major parties. This time both ANP and PPP are running a strong campaign, and given PTI’s performance and the incumbency factor working against it in K-P, it will be very hard for the party to even win 17 NA seats from K-P. If it somehow manages to win even 10 seats, that can be labelled a good show. Will electables change the game? In Punjab, dozens of electables have jumped ship from PML-N to PTI, especially from South Punjab, and this is where PTI can really benefit. In the last General Elections, PTI was able to win only five NA seats from Punjab, but now with big names like Nadeem Afzal Chan and Raza Hiraj in its league, PTI stands the chance to win around 30 to 35 NA seats from Punjab. In Sindh, however, other than Shah Mehmood Qureshi’s constituency, the chances are very dim for PTI. Even in Balochistan, winning two seats will be a miracle for PTI. So this leaves the total tally of the expected number of seats for PTI somewhere amid 45 to 50 in the NA. PTI’s anti PML-N narrative not strong enough Had Imran been able to focus on central and northern Punjab with the new narrative of highlighting the weak points of PML-N’s Punjab government, its chances of winning more seats would have been higher. However, Imran stuck to his old mantra of accusing Nawaz Sharif and holding the PML-N responsible for every ill the country is facing at the moment. His old narrative did not prove fruitful in attracting large numbers of electables from northern and central Punjab, neither has he been able to dent the PML-N’s vote bank through this narrative, if the by-elections are any indication. In fact, there is only a wave of increased sympathy in Punjab for the PML-N’s supposed victimisation. If given a level playing field, PML-N is most likely to return Coming back to the PML-N, with its strong grip over central and northern Punjab – still the strongest and most coveted region in the election – the party is all set to win at least 70 NA seats. The Lahore division, Gujranwala division, Sialkot division, Rawalpindi division and the Sargodha Division, are all still considered the PML-N’s forte. If the party can win around seven to eight seats from the Hazara belt and another five to six seats from Swat, Shangla and adjacent areas – the stronghold of Amir Muqam – it can eventually win around 90 seats in the NA easily. PML-N’s coalition government is the most probable outcome This number can give PML-N the status of the largest majority party in the parliament, but it is not sufficient to get a simple majority. This means the PML-N will bank heavily on Mahmood Khan Achakzai’s Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP) and Dr Abdul Malik Baloch’s National Party. Additionally, the MMA’s revival, with an alliance between Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F), Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and other religious parties, will provide the trump card. Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s JUI-F normally wins 12 to 15 NA seats from K-P and Balochistan, and with JI and other religious parties as allies, it can increase its tally to 20 seats. If we add the number of MMA, PkMAP and BNP’s seats with PML-N’s expected 90 seats, the PML-N will be in a position to make a coalition government in the centre as well as in Punjab, particularly with the help of independent candidates. PPP has a shot at the centre  If, however, the PML-N shows an average performance in Punjab and instead of winning 90 seats it manages to win only around 70 from Punjab and the rest of the country, then the equation will be completely different. It will then be a coalition government led by the PPP, MMA, ANP, and the independents. PTI’s chances still sketchy It seems that the game is poised between the PPP and the PML-N, though PTI’s eventual performance could cause an upset to this prediction. After all, a coalition government is deemed easy to control and dictate by the forces that be. The PTI can turn the tables if somehow voters from Punjab entirely turn against the PML-N, which seems very highly unlikely. The road to Islamabad goes through Punjab, and we all know whoever wins Punjab actually wins the centre as well. Whether we see a PML-N led coalition or one led by the PPP, or even miraculously one led by the PTI, the game will change depending on help from the independents from Punjab, the MMA and the ANP.

The misguided attempt by Reham Khan to sully Imran Khan’s reputation by way of her autobiographical tell-all book, has caused a sensation on both social and broadcast media. After all, an exposé by a woman scorned has a clear objective – to target and destroy the former husband. However, from whatever I have seen, heard and read so far, the message in the book consistently detracts from that narrative. It seems like a collaborative endeavour from a group of incompetent ghost – read ghastly – writers, given a project to lump together a disparate group of people and events and build a narrative that attempts to point a finger at the supposed misdeeds of many and puts the responsibility on one: Imran. Reham was not completely successful in her mission to destroy Imran’s character in the aftermath of the epic public spectacle her divorce became. With this book, she has only accomplished to cast a deep and troubling shadow on her own, by attacking many unrelated parties who end up becoming collateral damage in the war between two former spouses. Let’s spare a thought for the one real victim of this train-wreck – Wasim Akram’s former wife, who passed away in 2009 and is thus incapable of defending herself from the grave. I will not even dignify the nature of the allegations made by Reham in the book, but I will say shame on all those who played even the smallest role in this enterprise. Surely the question to be asked is: who hoped to benefit most from this macabre and twisted tale? Those convicted of graft, self-dealing, cronyism, nepotism and running the country into the ground for 30 years, who have failed to address the public scrutiny of their countless misadventures and performance while in public office. The book is possibly a Trojan horse to deflect attention from their failures and other core issues in the country. It seems no one is talking about the real challenges Pakistan is facing: health, education, jobs, safe drinking water, power outages; all of which are missing from election manifestos. This unholy mess of a book is not only crass, cringe worthy, malicious and toxic, but also a blunt instrument of distraction. Where Imran is concerned, there are no new earth-shattering revelations here; just the same old wine packaged in a new bottle. In fact, Reham will only succeed in causing some serious collateral damage and could herself implode into ignominy during the process. The affair is now a cheapened soap opera, as players from all sides keep pitching in with opinions no one asked for. From stage left appears Hamza Ali Abbasi, no stranger to controversy in his own right and a well-known Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) loyalist and unofficial mouthpiece, who speaks faster than he can perhaps process. https://twitter.com/iamhamzaabbasi/status/1002618580112945152 Hamza needs to grow up and learn to serve his leader better than he has during this fiasco. Watching him on a recent talk show – the rhetoric, the emotion, the conjecture on display – made me cringe my way through the show, as I waited for someone to knock some sense, decency, decorum, sanity and even a little bit of fact into the mix. https://twitter.com/RehamKhan1/status/1002834503214206976 https://twitter.com/RehamKhan1/status/1002839074422616064 Hamza believes the book has only been written to distract and deflect from real issues during the election; the irony is lost on him that he has successfully managed to launch the book better than any PR expert could’ve dreamed of. Reham now has a platform from which the book launch can actually be something the public may eagerly devour. https://twitter.com/RehamKhan1/status/1001132242406658048 https://twitter.com/wakistani/status/1003055639290146818 And what about the accusations and threats around the alleged hacking and sharing of Reham’s “fake” emails by Hamza? There is yet another lesson for Mr Abbasi here. Being a public figure himself, he should have known shaming Reham would be a double-edged sword. While attacking her book, he managed to get into the spotlight himself and shoot himself in the foot in the process. Although hacking or faking emails is not rocket science, both are illegal. On the flip side, Hamza may have received the manuscript legitimately. Reham had possibly already sent the manuscript through her Gmail account to some friendly journalists to build early buzz on the book. Any one of them could have passed it on to Hamza. https://twitter.com/RehamKhan1/status/1002845031244484609 https://twitter.com/theRealYLH/status/1002950832760016896 So, here’s my take on what may have actually happened! The PTI had been expecting the book to drop sometime before the elections. They had Hamza proactively looking to get a manuscript to start discrediting it. The book probably landed into his inbox by hook or by crook – through a journalist friend or via a hack, either is a possibility. The shock value in the manuscript forced PTI’s hand to go public, without authenticating the manuscript and shedding caution to the wind. Tactically, they believed they could take the hits now, months before the election, and deal with it head on. Desperate times, desperate measures. https://twitter.com/BilalAzmat7/status/1002957552177565696 https://twitter.com/TalatHussain12/status/1002936714002825217 On the hack question, Hamza’s defence is weak, as it does not seem to be out of the question. He then possibly doubled down by publishing allegedly fake emails from Reham – easy to do but hard to prove. Accusations have been made by both sides, but sadly, the ensuing Twitter spat was so undignified it actually bordered on inane. I can’t say who won, but it was a close tie in the banality stakes. https://twitter.com/RehamKhan1/status/1002927500417265669 However, are we all barking up the wrong tree? Hack or not, the fact is the manuscript has leaked and the question that arises is: will it damage Imran’s fourth and possibly final attempt to be elected premier of Pakistan? Imran came into politics with enough “playboy” baggage 20 years ago to sustain any meaningful impact from this book. The public accepted him for what he was then and who he is now. He has always remained mum about his alleged relationships, in matrimony or otherwise. He has remained particularly silent on his divorce from Reham, and has never publicly castigated her with accusations, slurs or blame for the split. This behaviour redeems Imran and his legacy to some extent, for no matter what Reham has thrown at him, now and in the past, he has chosen to remain silent and dignified. In reality though, the book may not be Imran’s biggest problem in the upcoming elections. His recent missteps, from welcoming Farooq Bandial into the PTI amongst many others like Aamir Liaquat, as well as putting more than one name forward for the interim chief ministers of Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P), only to pivot and withdraw the names in quick succession, are potentially bigger threats to his election prospects than this exposé. Imran’s lieutenants have done a bigger disservice to him with haphazard and shoddy due diligence on candidates put forward for these critical appointments. Luckily for PTI, the quick reversals of the aforementioned blunders might have mitigated some of the damage. Imran needs a more disciplined kitchen cabinet and needs to be more hands-on in strategic decision-making. The voting public expects a lot more from him, especially as he’s selling himself as an agent for change. The rhetoric on the jalsa circuits alone is not enough to give the intelligent voter the confidence that steady hands will be running the ship while Pakistan finds itself in choppy waters and a perfect storm lies in wait. Should the book ever make it to the printing press, despite all the writs and threats of litigation, here’s a sobering message for those who choose to buy and read it for a cheap thrills – I’ll guarantee cheap, minus the thrills! A literary giant Reham is not, but what may fail her would not be the lack of a lucid narrative in her book, but the malicious intent with which she wrote it; one that could misfire spectacularly and not succeed in disrupting Imran’s political juggernaut, even though the book’s many stakeholders are hoping for the reverse. In the meantime, Imran may well be the last man standing on Election Day, but there is a woman scorned who may just succeed in bringing him down.

With elections around the corner, every party is looking to up the ante with rhetoric and political noise. It’s raining slogans and promises, not to mention accusations as well. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) seems like the only party with any traction at the moment, and I am shockingly surprised to see PTI as the only party making waves as far as election campaigning is concerned. Taking the opportunity to see what they were promising this year, I went through their manifesto ­– being professionally involved in both editorials and political writing for quite some time, it was more curiosity than anything else. Before I write any further, I must of course confess that I am not a PTI supporter, so what you are about to read is as neutral as I can be. Generally speaking, the manifesto – the English version I went through at least – is well written. It is definitely a step ahead from what Imran Khan’s nemesis and former wife Reham Khan has written in her so-called memoirs, which were published online on July 10^th.   Despite the well-written nature of the manifesto, it still needs an editorial hand to tweak it. There are grammatical and punctuation mistakes here and there, but no spelling mistakes. Whoever wrote this was definitely old school, as they dumped the modern use of the ‘ze’ spelling style for the older ‘se’ spellings. The writing work is short, to the point and crisp, but rife with sweeping generalities. Apart from the financial policies, whose detailed precision stands out, the remainder of the manifesto reeks of banality, something akin to offering a panacea for all of Pakistan’s ills, as politicians do on stage in rallies.

Hum aap ko pani, bijli, gas daingay! (We’ll give you water, electricity and gas!) Lahore Paris ban jayega! (Lahore will become Paris!)

On July 25^th, Pakistan’s fate, at least for the next five years, will be in its own hands. The future will come down to all of us as we make certain choices in that polling booth. Some of us will still be thinking, weighing pros and cons, measuring the benefits, and calculating the risks. But most of us would have likely made up our minds on who to vote for before judgement day. The next day, Pakistan, a sovereign state since 1947, will see only the second successive transition in democratic power. But I have a question: are all people informed enough to decide the fate? Are all voters equally aware of the choices they will make, and their repercussions? Of course, not. The only requirement is that you need to have a national identity card (NIC), effectively making anyone over 18 years of age eligible to decide the country’s destiny. But if we were to add the requirement of having a matriculation/high school certificate at the time of casting the vote. Critics would argue this is impractical, and would needlessly eliminate a huge portion of the population. The counter is that this need not be a requirement for the next elections. Make it a vision 2028 or 2033. Make it a long-term plan for the next 20 years, giving enough time for elected members to build schools in their constituencies, provide thousands of jobs to teachers, clerical staff, senior management and construction workers. Add to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) through more work for the construction, steel, and services industries. Moreover, a matriculation only requires 12 years of education. I am being generous when I say give them 20 years. Take the extra eight for construction, enrolment and awareness. Some would now say Pakistan doesn’t have the budget for such a programme. The country spends close to Rs700 billion on education, roughly 2% of GDP, on the sector each year. Still, the literacy rate in the country is no better than 58%. According to a report published a few years ago, largely due to the fact that education is not a widely reported topic, as many as 66% of children in Balochistan and 51% in Sindh are out of school, followed by Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) with 47% and 34%, respectively. These are estimated figures, and by no means capture the scenario. The literacy rate of 58% is an astronomically exaggerated figure even by the definition of the ability of a person to read and write a simple letter with understanding in any language. So where does the money go? If even Rs700 billion isn’t enough, I don’t know what will be. If its falls short, open accounts in banking institutions. You want to crowdfund a dam. How about you crowdfund education! Worried about getting teachers to go to far-flung areas? How about you use the same students who have recently passed or finished their education by offering them jobs as teachers in the same school. You have created jobs straightaway. Never mind Pakistan’s millennium development goals or the sustainable development goals. Forget those. The country hasn’t met them, and probably won’t. But you put the requirement of a high school or matriculation certificate to casting a vote, and all election candidates vying for a place in the elections will look to increase school enrolment and literacy levels in their constituencies. It may give current elected members a headstart, but increasing awareness through education means the voter can no longer be fooled by cosmetic measures. The voter is now a much more aware, much more educated, and a much more informed person before stepping into the ballot box. The Constitution of Pakistan guarantees education to every child aged five-16 years, and you know what, it is free and compulsory. But at the end of the day, Pakistan will never implement any step that would put it on the path of growth, prosperity and sustainable development. We will argue, fight, abuse and remain in misery. For this is our curse. We have lived it for 71 years, and we will continue to do so. We lack the will to sacrifice. Some are fortunate, but remain oblivious. Several are less fortunate, but unaware. A few of us are just outright corrupt.

In June, Imran Khan, leader of Pakistan-Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and now set to be the country’s future prime minister, made a few uninformed statements on feminism. He said, 

“I disagree with the western concepts of feminism. It has completely degraded the role of a mother.”  

“PTI-led government made measures to support and promote female parliamentarians but that they failed to create a conducive environment for women in the assembly and the secretariat.”

“Seven bills drafted by the Women’s Parliamentary Caucus including those covering domestic violence, trafficking, home-based workers were not placed on the agenda despite repeated requests.”

The minorities living in Pakistan have perhaps been more adversely targeted since 9/11, with them being harshly exploited by the majority on the basis of their religion. Brutal incidents against the Christian community in Pakistan have gained international media attention, but politicians who made many promises in the past to work equally hard for minorities conveniently forgot about their promises once obtaining a seat in the parliament. Before Imran Khan turned towards politics with the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), there were many famous politicians who made their party manifestoes in favour of the minority, just to grasp their attention and their vote. They pandered to us, but they ignored the role played by the Christian community in the development of Pakistan. We, the Christian youth of Pakistan, are fully aware of the game the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) has played in the past to obtain the maximum votes from our areas. This is not to rant against the PML-N or favour PTI; the only true endgame is seeing new and educated people in the parliament, which is a dire need to safeguard the rights of Pakistan’s minorities. In simple words, Pakistan’s minorities no longer want to try what we have already tested and what has repeatedly failed. The leadership of all political parties must keep in mind the wish of our beloved founding father. Quaid’s Pakistan is a land where the state has no link with a person’s faith, and where people are free from oppression and enjoy their religious rights. After all, have we forgotten what Muhammad Ali Jinnah said in his famous August 11^th speech?

“You are free; you are free to go to your temples. You are free to go to your mosques or to any other places of worship in this State of Pakistan. You may belong to any religion, caste or creed – that has nothing to do with the business of the state. We are starting in the days where there is no discrimination, no distinction between one community and another, no discrimination between one caste or creed and another. We are starting with this fundamental principle: that we are all citizens, and equal citizens, of one State.”

“We are not elected by your votes, but selected by our party leaders.”

I’m sure every Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) member, in the leadership of Imran Khan, watched the full Rocky Balboa saga before initiating their election campaign. However, instead of only being inspired by the motivational rhetoric to push forward, a PTI MPA of the Sindh Assembly recently took his Balboa skills for a test... literally. As popularised by a viral video, in an altercation-turned-thrashing, Imran Ali Shah can be seen slapping the Senior Deputy Director for Coordination of the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), Dawood Chauhan. The reason being an alleged touch-and-go between both their cars. As a citizen of Naya Pakistan, I’m a little shell-shocked, a little relieved, and very disappointed. In a recent video, the MPA claims that the viral video does not show the full picture of the story. He explains that he unmounted his vehicle to “resolve matters” with the motorist. However, as per his alleged story, one of the motorists began to curse at the parliamentarian, in response to which he pushed Chauhan and matters “escalated from there”. Conflicting him, the viral video shows Shah repeatedly slapping the CAA’s Deputy Director of Coordination. https://twitter.com/dr_imranshah/status/1029397333090476032 For an educated MPA to physically abuse anyone, despite whatever reasons, is simply appalling. Resorting to physical violence represents a lack of ability to rationally process situations in a civilised and organised manner, which leads to questions regarding Shah’s potential and credibility as a leader. A person who can take the law in his own hands today, can do much worse with it when the law is on his side tomorrow. No excuse justifies the actions of Shah, no matter what clarification he presents, and regardless of any apology or action taken by the PTI disciplinary committee, this does testify to an abuse of power. What makes the matter worse is an explanatory note posted by Chauhan’s son, who claims that his family has known Firdous Shamim Naqvi, the president of PTI’s Sindh chapter, for years. And thus, asking his fellow countrymen to ponder over what would have happened if his family had not known Naqvi. It clearly suggests that the family’s relationship with Naqvi, and the fear of consequence is the only thing that eventually lead Shah to seek Chauhan’s apology. If a member of society with such affluent friendships can be thrashed, this situation cautions the common man of their standing. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10155487525071697&set=a.10150255620026697&type=3&theater Yet, this is also what fuels my slight relief. Asking a sitting member of the parliament to present a version of their story and suspending their membership till a final decision is made by PTI’s provincial disciplinary committee is unprecedented in a country such as Pakistan. Leaders like Rana Sanaullah have publicly abused, cursed, and religiously, politically and racially profiled hundreds of men and women without any consequence. They have gone on to vilify women in profane language, indulging in sexist, misogynistic commentary without any fear of “the law”. This represents a strong deterrent for “masculine men” like Shah, who believe that they can rage out on anyone in public without any consequences. However, while PTI’s actions are commendable, this is not where the story ends. The matter does require proper and deliberate investigation, which should ideally result in a harsh punishment for anyone who is willing to resort to physical violence. At the very least, it is evident that the MPA needs some anger management classes, and a tour of a therapist’s office. In Imran’s Naya Pakistan, this abuse of power, especially by men who are meant to be model citizens, leading and representing their constituencies, should not be tolerated. Furthermore, while Shah did apologise, his apology and explanatory video are clearly not heartfelt. A lack of honest remorse is pungently observable in the parliamentarian’s body language which further needs to be addressed. The shell-shocking part of this story, though, entails of an alleged National Identification Card (NIC) stating that Shah holds dual nationality. An image of the alleged NIC went viral on social media showing that Shah might be a British national as well. But there has been no official validation of the fact as of yet. Nonetheless, if it does come to be true, it could lead to Mr Shah’s removal from the Sindh Assembly, as well as a great deal of trouble for PTI. https://twitter.com/PervaizRashid3/status/1029467416491905026 Further twists in the story come in the form of a video by Shah’s stepmother. She has alleged that he has indulged in illicit activities, document forgery, and acts of physical aggression before. She claims that he and his brother never “accepted” their father’s second marriage, and threatened the widow after his death, eventually forging false documents rendering her ineligible to any inheritance from her husband. If true, this reiterates that Shah isn’t the sort of representative Imran promised in his revolutionised Pakistan. Therefore, whilst this matter needs to be investigated objectively, Shah should be made to understand that he has no right to threaten, physically harm, or even curse at the public. He is a representative of the people, and in turn a servant (as emphasised by Muhammad Ali Jinnah), and not the oppressor in a typical monarchy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ReUKeJsgmSk Nonetheless, whilst this video-war-drama fuels ratings for top media outlets, Pakistan is clearly a long way from being Naya. A few weeks back, Pervez Khattak, the former chief minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (K-P), had made some very questionable comments himself. Although he too apologised for his actions, this trend of making blunders and quickly showing remorse seems all too familiar. As aforementioned, while the disciplinary committee hearing and suspension of Shah’s membership for the time being shows a road to progress, it can only truly lead to the materialisation of Imran’s dream if some concrete action is eventually taken. Per trends of the past, if this event too is forgotten over the next few days and another mistake-then-apology breaks the internet, Pakistan won’t be moving quickly enough in the right direction. We, as a nation of individuals responsible for our actions, need to get our act together. Physical violence in response to situations that can be easily handled, such as a minor accident, are way too common in Pakistan. Beyond the scope of just one incident, we must address these issues at an individual, familial, cultural and societal level, ensuring that coming generations understand the consequences of aggression, and only resort to civilised discussions to handle such situations. And no matter how much more money or comfort he has on his parliamentary seat, Shah is no exception to the lot. He too needs to get his act together! May Pakistan prosper, and the Pakistani people learn to handle their anger better. Pakistan Zindabad!

I have to concede, it is not easy to digest. But every once in a while, there is news that shakes up the political arena and sweeps the ground beneath your feet. This is one of those instances. Although more details are to be revealed, there are enough facts present at the moment for us to be reasonably alarmed. It seems, unfortunately, that the only “genuinely incorruptible” man in Pakistan has also been compromised. The district police officer (DPO) of Pakpattan, Rizwan Gondal, was reportedly transferred after he intercepted Khawar Maneka, former husband of Prime Minister Imran Khan’s wife, Bushra Maneka, for speeding. The DPO and Khawar were asked to resolve the matter by the former apologising to the latter. Gondal refused to apologise, stating that the police had done nothing wrong and were just doing their job. Reportedly, this led to him being transferred. The matter is said to have involved Punjab Chief Minister Usman Buzdar, and by extension, one could reasonably assume that there is some involvement of the first family as well. It is also alleged that Bushra interfered in the matter and informed relevant authorities to get the issue sorted as soon as possible. https://twitter.com/omar_quraishi/status/1034145965052231682 Alternate versions of an incident are always present, but in the age of information, they are increasingly hard to validate. Imran Shah, the PTI MPA from Karachi, scrambled to sway the narrative, but could not gain traction with even the staunchest of supporters. Eventually, he had to cave in, though not entirely, and admit defeat. Similarly, this incident seems to be heading the same way. So far, there does not seem to be a credible alternate version of facts that supports the untimely transfer of the DPO. And it seems highly unlikely that an alternate version of the truth can be presented. Even the greatest spin doctors cannot shun the accusation that the transfer was politically motivated. And it does not help the government that the officer in question was a topper in his CSS exams, and hence makes it more difficult to discredit his story in the eyes of the public. https://twitter.com/omar_quraishi/status/1034034965221203969 Although a pretext will be found, there is no doubt. And 48 hours are enough time to do it. However, it will only be for the consumption and reiteration of the state-controlled media. https://twitter.com/PervaizRashid3/status/1034088337596981251 Why this is problematic? Imran’s manifesto and narrative was dominated by an anti-corruption motto which was later translated into the “austerity campaign”. The campaign serves as a symbol; the government is here to serve and not rule its people. Hence, were it any other political party that tried to influence an institution, it may not have caused the uproar that it did. But someone in or related to Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) involved in something like this just seems hypocritical. What further increases the gravity of the matter is that PTI substantially banked on Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) votes by its claim of depoliticising the police. It laid down a vision of rule of law, with no exceptions. As Imran very recently stated in his speech, every man regardless of his social standing ought to be equal in the eyes of the law. A more blatant contradiction in what is said and what is being done cannot be presented. All the aesthetic work of Asad Umar travelling in economy class, Imran hiring only two servants, Arif Alvi driving his own car without any security or protocol or road blockage, and Imran Ismail not living in the Governor House goes down the drain. The whole “austerity campaign” is reduced to mere words because it shows that the government will make exceptions and will bend the law at its discretion. https://twitter.com/YounisKhaliqPTI/status/1034228325626077185 And what started as a mere issuance of a speeding ticket could eventually hamper the government’s vision of broadening its tax base, because it has lost its credibility. It’s a stretch, but it is still a huge loss as far as optics are concerned. And good optics command an obedient population. The slippery slope Whether this incident will set a precedent for further monarchical behaviour is a matter of debate. On the one hand, one could argue that this incident could be deemed an exception because the PM’s family was directly involved, and similar exceptions will not be made for other big-wigs because they do not carry the same power. However, this could also be used as an example to bend the law, as the ministers see fit in the future. Because if the PM’s wife’s former husband can do it, then why can’t a party loyalist avail the same privileges? And as it turns out, it did not take that long for one of these loyalists to avail the opportunity themselves. Sheikh Rasheed, a prominent ally of Imran, was recently seen using the police for his own benefit in Rawalpindi. A video surfaced of a traffic warden knocking over bikes to make way for the railway minister’s government car and security detail. In doing so, he damaged private property. Local traders complained that they had wanted the area to be cleared out too but it had not been done so. Rasheed reportedly said that since he is a minister, he has the power to remove encroachments, if he wanted to. https://twitter.com/omar_quraishi/status/1034342067089104897 So even if, somehow, we understand the justification that a certain exception had to made given it was Bushra's former husband who is the accused, what action will be taken in Rasheed's case, if any? Will we receive another justification that holding Rasheed accountable will create political rifts between the two allies? This is dangerous territory, but PTI has chosen to enter it. If the party wanted to find a way around the law for themselves, why did it claim to be different from other parties in the first place? There is nothing new in what is happening at the moment, we have all seen this power of privilege time and again with previous leaders and that is possibly PTI’s first failure since making the government. The first lady This may not be the US but people here certainly have expectations of the first lady. Kulsoom Nawaz has always been instrumental for Nawaz Sharif’s campaign and Bushra too curbed dissenting voices within the women in PTI. Thus, if the first lady were to be involved in this incident, it would not only open her to accountability but also implicate Imran directly. Implicate him in something that he accuses others of.  Put him in the position where fingers may be pointed at him for corruption, putting his family first and bending the rule of law for them and himself. He will be accused of siding with everything that he had stood up against. All that fight for justice, is this what Imran wanted all along? Predicting the future is beyond us; however, some precedents are too strong and hence can shape behaviour. This had the potential to be one of those incidents. If Imran’s own family was subordinate to the law, then Imran’s repeated pleas to the public servants of this nation asking for their fidelity to the law and the Constitution would not have fallen on deaf ears. Unfortunately, it seems that there will always be people above the law. As of now, Prime Minister Imran has taken notice of the incident and has asked Buzdar to submit an inquiry report. It remains to be seen if strict action will be taken against Khawar, if he is proven to be guilty, but what is perhaps more likely is that we will be presented with those “alternative facts” soon enough.

The Indian state of Kerala, known as God’s own country, has become the victim of nature’s wrath and is experiencing the worst floods of the century. Thus far, the floods have left 445 people dead and dozens missing. In the hilly regions, floods have caused landslides which have exacerbated the destruction of homes, bridges and road networks. Around 1/6th of the population of the state has been directly affected, and the central government has declared it a level-3 calamity, which clearly indicates the severity of the catastrophe.  First of all, it is worth exploring why God’s own country has come under God’s ‘wrath’. For all the farrago of superstitious explanations coming from various quarters, it needs to be cleared that the floods can be classified as a manmade disaster, as stated by eminent ecologist Madhav Gadgil. A 2011 report submitted by the Western Ghats Ecology Expert Panel, headed by Gadgil, had apparently warned that ill-thought developmental practices were ruining the ecological sustainability of the Western Ghats hill chain, one of the world’s most biologically diverse areas. The report advised many states, including Kerala and Karnataka, to follow sensible and sustainable development policies near protected forests in hilly areas. The report was rejected by the ministry as well as by both states, yet the worst damage of these floods took place in the areas where the Gadgil committee recommended protection. Indeed this is a great warning, not just for India but for the entire sub-continent. South Asia has lately been on a development-centred economic growth spree to improve its infrastructure and cater to its fast increasing population and demand for jobs, housing, recreation, and food. With the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) underway, this drove has further strengthened with a strong sense of strategic competition and rivalry. However, the states involved need to exercise caution in this rat-race for development. Coming back to Kerala, I would like to address the controversial issue of foreign aid for the floods. Many Indian media platforms are running stories of India rejecting foreign assistance from the UAE, and projecting it as an example of inhumanity. These stories have strong undertones of turning the issue into a political vendetta against the current central government. The implication here is that the aid was rejected because the central government is being partial against the state government, for it is run by a party other than the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Further, one can also sense a subtle intent to add a communal colour to the issue, as the state of Kerala has a substantial Muslim population, many of whom work in the Gulf States and follow the Wahhabi school of Islam, adding strong cultural and economic linkages with Arab nations. However, the issue is clearly being blown out of proportion. The media and intellectual quarters are foregoing rationality to add political baggage to their op-eds. First and foremost, it must be noted that there was no formal offer of aid through the official channels of the UAE – it was merely a verbal gesture. Secondly, the policy of not accepting foreign aid is neither recent nor a BJP invention – the same was done by former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh when the US and Japan offered humanitarian assistance during the 2013 Uttarakhand floods. Earlier on in 2004, India refused to accept American aid for rehabilitation after the Tsunami. The reason for this is that India is economically self-sufficient and has a robust disaster management infrastructure. India is currently the sixth largest economy, and second largest state in terms of population. Thus, it has the ability to generate funds and provide humanitarian relief, as is the case for the Kerala floods. There exist paramilitary cadres and organisations like the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) and National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) with high-quality expertise in the field. Further, as stated in the parliament by the Minister of State for External Affairs, General VK Singh, over the past years, India has become a nation that has given more foreign aid than it has received. He also suggested that as the country’s international stature and economic heft grows, India should avoid taking aid from foreign countries. After all, accepting foreign assistance does not rhyme well with India’s growing global stature and economic heft. Another question that comes to mind while accepting foreign aid is of the informal and unwritten obligations that emerge alongside it. If a country takes assistance from a foreign country, in many ways it loses part of its strategic autonomy. Hence, when India is in the position to self-finance its relief efforts, it would not be sane to accept foreign aid instead. Moreover, the state and centre have done a commendable job in disaster management thus far in Kerala. The state has provided shelter to over one million people in over 3,200 shelters, and the centre has provided assistance of Rs600 crores. All Indian states have provided financial and other kinds of assistance to Kerala, and many civil servants, politicians and ordinary civilians have donated a month’s salary to relief efforts. This shows that India is indeed capable of handling the matter internally. Finally, in a gesture of goodwill, newly elected Prime Minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan, also offered humanitarian assistance after the disaster. Once again, while India has sincerely expressed her gratitude to Pakistan’s new government for offering relief assistance, it has not accepted, as per its policy. However, this need not be the reason to deduce that this comes as a jolt to peace-making efforts between the two countries. On the contrary, Pakistan’s gesture has been appreciated in official and civilian circles. https://twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI/status/1032637468531666945 In India, people have strong hopes when it comes to Imran and his Naya Pakistan. Imran is already a hero in India, not just because of his celebrity status, but also due to his tree-plantation initiative in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P). His earlier interactions with India and Indians during his cricketing days and his study of Indian states like Bihar proves in certain terms that he has a better understanding of India and its concerns. I believe his vast public following, sincerity, and out-of-the-box thinking makes a perfect combination to achieve a breakthrough in Indo-Pak relations, provided he gets enough support from within. On India’s side, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has expressed his commitment to good India-Pakistan ties, and has clearly stated that India is looking for constructive and meaningful engagement with Pakistan. Hence, there is no reason to portray India’s refusal to accept Pakistan’s help as an indication of stiffening relations between the two countries and take it as a signal to make doomsday predictions – especially given this refusal has nothing to do with Pakistan and everything to do with India’s stature and its internal policies. The sky is the limit for cooperation between India and Pakistan, and substantial progress and dialogue can easily take place between the two, as long as there exists an overall atmosphere of peace and goodwill.

Squeaking with laughter while speaking to a journalist, then concluding with a sardonic snide, Iftikhar Durrani, Imran Khan’s spokesperson, claimed with confidence that SP Tahir Dawar was “safe” in Peshawar on October 28^th. Unfortunately, however, with the recent discovery of the policeman’s dead body, that arrogant snide should only linger as a haunting memory for the prime minister’s top aide. The note from the Islamic State (IS) found alongside the late SP’s body is what makes matters worse than one could potentially begin to imagine. The latter being so, specifically because the government has repeatedly claimed that neither IS nor any direct affiliate of the organisation exists in Pakistan. https://twitter.com/bashirgwakh/status/1062337625682558976 The government’s claims with regards to IS, however, seem very incredible, particularly with clerics like Maulana Abdul Aziz issuing public statements in support of IS’s missions and objectives. Furthermore, with posters and graffiti representing IS’s logo vandalising public locations in Punjab, one can only question the credibility of the government’s confidence in its claims. Specifically, the appearance of an IS flag in the federal capital back in September 2017 itself is a clear reflection of the extremist organisation’s existing support in the country. Moreover, General John Nicholson Jr, the commander of US and international forces, claimed in early 2017 that the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) provides a “core fighting group” to the IS. Considering that the TTP is an existing and identified threat to Pakistan’s security, their direct linkage to the IS re-emphasises the support for the organisation across the tribal region of the country. Without acknowledging the existing support for such a nefarious organisation, the Pakistani government, in effect, turns a blind eye to a very pressing matter. One, which if not handled correctly, could lead to a very barren and distraught country. One that could also possibly be the cause of SP Dawar’s assassination, particularly because of his strong stance against extremist ideologies in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) region. An outstanding officer, the late policeman was a very strong adversary of extremist ideologies. To an extent that he spent a large fortune rehabilitating a close relative who had been brainwashed by a fanatic group including the Taliban. His resilient efforts against such terrorist factions are evident by his success at rehabilitating his relative, and are also reiterated by his successful campaign and encounters against terrorist outfits in the region. Hence, it stands to reason that he posed a direct threat to such organisations, particularly the IS, which could have taken callous steps to remove this beloved officer from their opposition. Their success at doing so, however, highlights a blunderous lapse at the hands of our government and security agencies. In failing to protect a coveted officer, one who had already out-battled death twice – once from a suicide attack in 2009, another time during an encounter in 2007 – the government’s impotence at protecting its citizens is far too clear. What makes matters worse is the government’s apathetic attitude towards the recovery of the officer after the issue was brought to limelight. Despite his sudden absence being highlighted by his family and friends across multiple media outlets, the government refused to accept the news of his abduction. Therefore, the concerns regarding his death and the high degree of backlash from the Pakhtun community are not only justified, but an omen portending a divided Pakistan. If the government fails to protect one of its own, and that to a coveted SP from K-P, how can it possibly begin to emphasise any notion of protection for the ordinary citizen? Furthermore, the fact that Dawar was abducted from G-10/4, Islamabad, a residential area in the federal capital, follows to question the ineffectiveness of agencies that could’ve lead to this event. As a friend succinctly put it:

“Agar Islamabadi safe nai hain tou phir Lahorion ki tou khair.” (If Islamabadis aren’t safe, then Lahoris have much to fear.)

At the time of writing this article, the trailer for The Legend of Maula Jatt (LoMJ) has already garnered around three million views on multiple accounts on Facebook, around one million views on YouTube, and more than a million views through different reaction videos. It has generated the hype it truly deserved. Anurag Kashyap was one of the first ones to tweet about the trailer, while the likes of Karan Johar, Alia Bhatt and Sonam Kapoor are full of praise for what they have seen. https://twitter.com/anuragkashyap72/status/1076108848929202176 https://twitter.com/karanjohar/status/1076341258686091264 This is Fawad Khan’s first film since returning from greener pastures, Bilal Lashari’s second venture after the trendsetting Waar, and Mahira Khan’s reunion with Fawad. What’s not to look forward to? It has something for everyone; even for someone like me, who thought Waar was overrated and disjointed (even though very well treated). Before moving further, let’s address the elephant in the room. I have seen numerous posts leaving comments like:

“Gladiator ki copy hai.” (This is a copy of Gladiator) “Game of Thrones chhaap liya.” (They’ve copied Game of Thrones)

“Tou aap chhaap letay!” (So you could have copied it!)

“Maulay nu Maula na maray tay Maula nae marda!” (If Maula does not kill Maula, then Maula does not die)

The Sindh government budget for the fiscal year 2018-19 witnessed an increase in spending on education, with the Rs208.23 billion allocated for the education sector showing an increase in spending of 14.67% from the outgoing fiscal year. Since the incumbent ruling party in Sindh took the reins of power years ago, budgetary allocations kept increasing every year compared to previous years, while education standards remained stagnant, or rather, deteriorated. For instance, an estimated 52% of children in Sindh are still out of school. Despite billions of rupees being ‘spent’ every year on education by the Pakistan Peoples Party’s (PPP) provincial government, in addition to money spent by international donors over the last 11 years, the ground reality remains depressing and contrary to the claims made by the Sindh government. The ruling elites of Sindh translate increased literacy to be a danger to their power structure, which is essentially based on feudalism and dynastic politics. Increased literacy will enlighten the citizenry with more tools for critical thinking and informed decision-making skills, which is considered a threat to the very dynastic political structure that is being maintained in Sindh. The PPP-led government is afraid of such a social change, which may render it powerless. To have a clear understanding of the gravity of the problem, it is imperative to dissect the long 11 years of PPP in Sindh with regard only to the education sector. It is very unfortunate that the Sindh government vociferously cries a shortage of funds, which is what it blames for why it could not improve the standards of education, including increasing the literacy rate, providing a better quality of education, training teachers and so on. Above all, it has completely failed to stop the deadly practice of unfair means or cheating in exams, which is blatantly endangering the future of our younger generations. However, the fact remains that the Sindh government could not utilise the allocated budget for Special Education, Sindh Technical Education and Vocational Training Authority (STEVTA), Universities and Boards, and so on. During the last eight months of the current fiscal year, utilisation of the allocated budget has been negligible. Out of the Rs5 billion allocated for college education boards for 48 ongoing schemes with different interventions, unfortunately a meagre 16% of the budget has been utilised over the past eight months. The Chief Minister of Sindh allocated Rs9.598 billion for the Sindh Education Foundation (SEF), with the intention to expand 2,400 schools and reach around 650,000 students. However, it has not moved past 550,000 students, as compared to Punjab where three million students are enrolled under the foundation. This year, the SEF received a large number of applications for the Adoption Program but failed to execute it, because the Secretary School Education and Literacy Department Qazi Shahid Pervaiz could not convene a board meeting over the last five months. Sindh has a total of 42,383 public schools, a number that has declined from 47,557 in 2011. Most schools, around 95%, only offer primary education. Given the situation, dropping out after primary level becomes unavoidable. Meanwhile, the Sindh government has completely failed to share a roadmap to overcome this gap. The curriculum being followed is from 2007, while the last review was in 2012, for which the books have not yet been printed. The Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) curriculum belongs in the 19^th century, and though the Early Childhood Curriculum (ECE) was launched in a five-star hotel years ago, only God knows how long it will take to get the required books and teachers trained in order to implement it. Till 10^th grade the medium of education is either Sindhi or Urdu, but higher secondary and college education in Sindh is completely in English. This sudden change in the language of instruction at higher grades creates trouble for the children, who might as well be reading in French. The Standardised Assessment Test (SAT), which used to take place for students of class five and eight, has also been suspended as most students who took the test failed. Instead of improving the quality of teaching or re-examining the test itself, the SAT process was suspended. Meanwhile, there is no accountability when it comes to the performance of teachers beyond attendance, which is taken once a month, as this is part of the Reform Support Unit (RSU) project in which someone visits and checks attendance through a biometric device. This RSU project remains partly dysfunctional due to a lack of funds, as foreign funding has been stopped. Regarding the management structure, there are currently two directorates that are operational, while a third one is being planned to be setup for ECE. This means each government school building and operations will be managed by three different directorates. The consolidation policy of Sindh clearly remains a failure. It is evident that the challenges are immense, though certain steps are essential for improving Sindh’s educational system. The SEF needs radical changes – including budgetary – to increase enrolment, while the Education Department needs to make existing public schools fully functional. The Private Schools Network (PSN) should be taken onboard (through legislation) to run second shifts for secondary schools, and for this the government should provide the PSN a subsidy per child. This is needed on a war footing basis if we are to ensure Sindh’s children get a secondary education. The process should be announced and published once a year to streamline the academic year and ensure increased enrolment. A curriculum board should also be formed with an open and transparent process like that in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (K-P). When it comes to teachers, their performance – alongside the principal’s – should be linked with the result of the school unit, while their hiring should be carried out through independent bodies to ensure merit. The college merger process should be carried out as per the judgement of the High Court, while one school unit should obviously be managed by one head instead of four different ones. For examination boards, the government should constitute a commission for managing, overseeing and recommending measures related to examinations from primary to intermediate levels. It will help improve education standards in the province and prohibit cheating in exams. Donor agencies such as the US Agency for International Development (USAID), the EU, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) and the Gates Foundation should also be convinced to work in liaison with the federal government for funded projects instead of directly engaging at the provincial level, for I am a witness to how foreign funding is being wasted here. As an MPA of Sindh, I have submitted the Sindh Examination Commission Bill 2018 to address the aforementioned problems at the Sindh Assembly, and I request the Sindh government to support that bill. Sindh is lagging behind in achieving the United Nations’ Sustainable Development goals and fulfilling the obligation of free education under Article 25-A. At the pace with which the Sindh government is working in the name of ‘reforms’, and with millions of children out of school, we can only pray for a miracle to change the fate of the children of Sindh. However, as always, I believe change is inevitable in Sindh. The province has immense potential for development, keeping in view the large chunk of population that consists of the youth. It is high time we materialise this potential into a blessing, before it’s too late to bridge the gaps.

US President Donald Trump once stated that he was for free and fair trade, but he just wanted better deals. This statement can be applied to his trade war with China, which he initiated last year to bring down the massive trade imbalance between China and the US. Pakistan, too, faces a trade imbalance with China. It signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with China in 2006, which was touted as Pakistan’s gradual phasing out of protectionism. However, there were concerns that exposure to big export powerhouses had the potential to damage developing countries such as Pakistan, that were unable to nurture infant industries behind protective trade barriers like other developed countries could. The concerns were real, as trade imbalance between the two countries stood at $9.7 billion last year, with Pakistan on the losing end. The FTA with China did not solve the chronic problem of our current account deficit. Prime Minister Imran Khan’s recent visit to attend the second Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation has resulted in Pakistan signing various memoranda of understanding (MoUs) with China. One of these is the second phase of the FTA, in which China will open 90% of its market for Pakistani goods while we will open 65% of ours for Chinese goods. Pakistan needs favourable trading terms to shore up its foreign exchange reserves, the depletion of which has been the cause of numerous problems and has led to us knocking at the doors of ‘friendly’ countries and donors with stringent political conditions. Therefore, we need a fair deal for free trade with a country as big as China. The question is, how can we take advantage of this market access? What if we have nothing to export to China? This brings us to another important MoU on Special Economic Zones (SEZs), which are part of the broader China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) framework. SEZs would manufacture goods that could be exported to foreign markets. The first SEZ will be established at Rashakai, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and will include manufacturing units of garment and textile products, construction materials, general merchandise, electronics and electrical appliances, automobile and mechanical equipment. Development on other SEZs would be contingent upon the progress of Rashakai. The location of Rashakai’s SEZ offers a glimpse of the effectiveness of CPEC. It is located at an intersection of the Karakoram Corridor and the Main Line-1 (ML-1). It is also connected to the M-1 Motorway through the Karnal Sher Khan Interchange and is almost an hour’s drive away from the Islamabad Airport and the N-55 Indus Highway. This is important because factories need to be connected via highways, expressways and rail lines. This leads us to the third important MoU signed between Pakistan and China: the agreement on a technical package to upgrade ML-1. This will significantly increase the speed and capacity of railways, as line capacity will go from 34 to 171 while freight transport volume will increase from a paltry 4% to 20%. This will help Pakistan Railways get rid of deficit that has ballooned to Rs350 billion. Investment in the railways along with improved technology and added capacity could rescue it from ruins and help it regain its old status. These three deals help us put CPEC into perspective. CPEC is supposed to bring prosperity to Pakistan. However, its effectiveness depends upon how well it is carried out. The first phase was about infrastructure development: rail, motorways and ports – conduits through which cargo would be transported. Then came power projects which would light up the factories, helping Pakistan through its chronic energy crisis. Subsequently, SEZs will be established which will be clusters of factories producing merchandise, mainly to be exported. Of course, this is not going to happen in that particular order, as work on the ML-1 is yet to begin. This mechanism also has to be supported by frameworks such as fair FTAs and the availability of finance so that the whole project does not crumble. There is news that Chinese commercial loans will be rolled over the next few years, which gives us the confidence that future financial snags would be dealt with through Chinese cooperation. And that CPEC is not a debt trap after all. These new MoUs also give us hope that CPEC is what it is propagated to be: an important node in the larger Belt and Road Initiative that will interconnect Eurasia for the mutual benefit of all states. It also gives us the optimistic impression that deals can be renegotiated, that criticism of any bilateral or multilateral deal does not amount to treason, and that further fine-tuning is not only the need of the hour but a permanent necessity of co-operation. Pakistan needs to work smart as well; after all, opacity in the deals would prevent smart inputs by experts. When the deals are made public and scrutinised by a lot of minds, only then will we be able to tweak them to our net advantage. I hope the incumbent government endorses the policy of transparency vis-a-vis CPEC so we can ensure it brings the good it promised.

Shishper glacier, located above Hassanabad village adjacent to the Karakoram Highway (KKH) in Hunza district, has been in the news lately as it is an unusual glacier – unlike many other large glaciers in the region that are melting and receding, this glacier is advancing and surging. [caption id="attachment_84835" align="alignnone" width="600"] The 15km long Shishper Glacier that was surging until a week ago[/caption] This towering black wall of ice has been pushing forward into Hassanabad and heading towards the village and the KKH since last July. I visited the glacier this past May and I have to say it was a fascinating experience to see this river of ice advancing at 3.7 metres per day. I could almost hear it groan as it inched forward, crackling in the hot sun as chunks of ice fell off. We were warned not to go too close to it. Below the glacier, streams of muddy melt water were rushing down into the rock strewn nullah (ravine). We were told that behind this impenetrable wall of ice, there was a glacial lake which had formed with melt water from another nearby glacier that had retreated. Muchowar glacier once ran parallel to Shishper in the form of a fork that leads to Hassanabad nullah, but it had retreated four kilometres in the last decade; some say from rockfall breaking the glacier bed due to mining in the valley for semi-precious stones. The surge of the Shishper glacier into the nullah had blocked the stream water from the Muchowar glacier, forming a lake. This past weekend, after temperatures spiked up north, the lake water finally burst through crevices in Shishper glacier and was discharged into the nullah, causing a mini flood that lasted from a couple of days (June 22-23). [caption id="attachment_84833" align="alignnone" width="600"] Water melting out of the Ghulkin glacier in Gulmit village[/caption] According to Shezad Baig, the assistant director of the Gilgit-Baltistan Disaster Management Authority (GBDMA), who went up on a helicopter monitoring mission on June 23rd:

"The glacial lake formed at the Shishper Glacier has now completely discharged."

 "Not one house was damaged in Hassanabad village, thanks to the protective walls we had made. Only parts of the KKH were damaged and now the road link has also been restored."

 “Glaciers can surge cyclically – meaning they can grow and then retreat on their own, or they can even break (the bed rock can break) and now climate change is affecting them. To truly study a glacier’s health, one would have to do a mass balance study which means climbing up to the accumulation zone of a glacier and sticking in poles, and coming back each year to measure them, which is very difficult to do in the Karakoram mountains as our glaciers are located at such high altitudes that we can’t even reach their accumulation zones.”

"We have completed the vulnerability assessment reports on several glaciers for the project and have recommended the ones showing the most dangerous trends," Baig told me when I met him in Hunza in May. "We also need to raise community awareness and mobilise the local people."

"Shishper is moving because of two reasons. Firstly, it is located on the main Karakoram thrust line and there is plate movement. Secondly, because of increased snowfall in winter months due to climate change in the past five years, the glacier deposit is increasing."

Before arriving at the historic ruins of Takht-i-Bahi (also called Takh’ Bahi), a former Buddhist monastic complex and an Indo-Parthian archaeological site, one passes through its namesake village. A narrow and fractured two-way road snakes through, with shops on either side, offering consumer and plastic goods. Quite unfortunately, there are no hints or traces of the village’s shared history, pride or even association to the neighbouring site’s religious, historic and cultural significance. Instead, open drains, unregulated parking, hanging wires, peeled paint strips and half-torn posters on buildings are a common sight that greet visitors. [caption id="attachment_85445" align="alignnone" width="600"] Photo: Tayeba Batool[/caption] [caption id="attachment_85181" align="alignnone" width="600"] Ruins of the Buddhist monastic complex of Takht-i-Bahi. Photo: Getty[/caption] Perhaps the villagers are not looking to welcome outsiders. Or possibly they are unaware of Takht-i-Bahi’s significance. A UNESCO World Heritage Site, this complex was built in the first century, and is an important relic of Pakistan’s Gandhara region. The name is said to be derived from Persian, where 'Takht' means throne and 'Bahi' means water (referring to the water sources on the mountain top). One of the relatively well-preserved Buddhist sites, its position on a hill top saved it from successive invasions. However, several of its artifacts, recovered during earlier excavations, are either lost to smuggling or can be found in the British Museum now. [caption id="attachment_85199" align="alignnone" width="573"] Statuettes from Takht-i-Bahi, from the British Musuem’s collection. Photo: Getty[/caption] [caption id="attachment_85449" align="alignnone" width="450"] Photo: Tayeba Batool[/caption] For the government, any restoration work (genuine or not) is deemed complete once the physical uplift has followed through. Economic opportunities, in the form of employment creation, are hailed as gains for the whole community. Tourism is increasingly evolving and becoming more enterprising, allowing the creation of jobs such as tour guides, ticket collectors, security personnel and cleaning staff. However, there are still constraints with regards to gender inclusion, an English bias, income enhancement, and nepotism. While the economic approach for heritage management needs closer scrutiny, another important aspect is the highly sought after element of sustainability. What happens once the refurbishment is complete? Despite being enlisted as state property, who are the real guardians? In the case of Takht-i-Bahi, the site is covered on at least two sides by the village. Access to the road is through the village, and it is this community which leads us to this wonderful remnant of history. Thus, is the village responsible for Takht-i-Bahi’s sustenance? [caption id="attachment_85437" align="alignnone" width="600"] Photo: Tayeba Batool[/caption] [caption id="attachment_85451" align="alignnone" width="600"] Photo: Tayeba Batool[/caption] [caption id="attachment_85453" align="alignnone" width="600"] Photo: Tayeba Batool[/caption] The community’s ownership and affiliation with the place has been marred by state-led interventions for the site’s archaeological management, while ignoring its social fabric. Not taking the site’s social framework into consideration is a pressing issue that isn’t discussed enough in archaeological management, site rehabilitation, and rural/urban development. Historical sites and physical heritage are assumed to be a shared national asset, which are preserved and managed by designated authorities. These authorities have structures set in place that are inherited from our colonial legacy. Neither visited nor reformed since independence, these structures do not include the simple element of inclusion. By excluding the community, the social infrastructure woven within the physical environment is dismissed. Under the current lamentable state of public education and the national curriculum, which denies any non-Islamic archaeological history as being part of the nation’s inheritance, there are always questions about heritage and cultural identity. However, what is known is that historic sites in Pakistan are not always left abandoned, isolated, or forgotten. In the neighbourhoods of the walled cities of Lahore, Peshawar and Multan, people continue to interact with these ancient sites. A sense of ownership and identity evolves in the microcosm of the surrounding community and that is where all interventions have to start. [caption id="attachment_85442" align="alignnone" width="600"] Photo: Tayeba Batool[/caption] [caption id="attachment_85444" align="alignnone" width="600"] Photo: Tayeba Batool[/caption] Even before the physical intervention, financing and project launch, conservation has to account for the people in the region to ensure a sustainable effort at uplifting the heritage site. This implies that community leaders and residents are consulted and granted the right to own equal stakes in the execution of the project. Sometimes, it will also necessitate an assessment of not only the perimeters of the heritage site, but also of the adjoining community area, to realise how refurbishing one can improve the other. To some extent, this has been the aim behind renovating various neighbourhoods inside the Delhi Gate, as part of the conservation efforts in the walled city of Lahore. In 2011, a master plan for the conservation of Takht-i-Bahi and the neighbouring city was prepared, with an anticipated implementation from 2012-2017.  As part of the review of the site’s boundaries, the entire mountain area was declared an “archeological reserve” by the state authority in charge, which is the government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (K-P). The presence of barbed wires and fences could potentially deter illegal diggers or miscreants, but it also signals a strong boundary which isolates the community, not allowing them to engage or intersperse with the historic space. Urbanisation and land regulation need to be reconciled in a framework that does not isolate the community. [caption id="attachment_85452" align="alignnone" width="600"] Photo: Tayeba Batool[/caption] [caption id="attachment_85443" align="alignnone" width="600"] Photo: Tayeba Batool[/caption] Expanding heritage or archaeological management to include urban management or rural development is not an easy task. It will need the engagement of multiple stakeholders within the government and private sector, along with the community. But additionally, it will also require multiple disciplines to be involved, such as architecture, urban/regional planning, historic preservation, economics, and anthropology. Social sciences are the key to understanding the transformations in the area and ensuring that ground realities are taken into account at every step of the decision-making process. Without this major shift in thinking about heritage management, state-led planning will continue to operate inefficiently, and upcoming generations will be deprived of important markers that characterise this country, such as Takht-i-Bahi.

When I sat down to talk to Khumariyaan, one of the most happening bands currently on the local music circuit, one thing was obvious: the quartet possessed energy that was four times higher than what you'd expect. Although they've been around for a while, since 2008 to be precise, it was their gig on Coke Studio and their Lux Style Award winning track, Ya Qurban that garnered quite a lot of attention. Khumariyaan, literally meaning 'people in a state of intoxication', started like most other bands — some friends from Peshawar were just hanging out, jamming and having fun. Aamer Shafiq, Farhan Bogra and Shiraz Khan were studying at the Institute of Management Sciences in Peshawar and shared the love for music. The trio met Sparlay Rawail when they came to Islamabad to participate in the 2010 Battle of the Bands. They took the competition by storm with their first track, Tamasha, created spontaneously that very day. They called it Tamasha (ruckus) because it was extemporaneous magic. Shafiq explained,

“Each one of us brings our own element to Khumariyaan’s sound. Shiraz would play a beat and I would start giving a rhythm to him. Sparlay would lay his leads on it and Farhan would add the rubab. It can start from any one of us.”

“Initially, people insisted that we add a vocalist and lyrics to our compositions. Instrumentals had a very limited audience. But there was still opportunity — it was a void that Khumariyaan filled. Now that it has clicked, we have flexibility for experimentation. We can always have a featuring artist, be it a vocalist or some instrument player.”

“We continue to improvise on stage and our audiences enjoy it. We feed off of their reactions and that brings out the signature Khumariyaan spontaneity in our live acts. Because we don’t have vocal-based music, it reaches out to a global audience. Language can be limiting but instrumental music helps you break that barrier. A hundred people relate to an instrumental in a hundred different ways. We also wanted to highlight our folk instruments, some of which have almost become extinct. We started using a sehtar in our music which is an elongated version of a Chitrali lute. When I picked the instrument up, there was only one maker and one player of it left, Ustad Zainullah. We requested him to jam with us. We are trying to make the sehtar popular again. This is an instrument that has been played for centuries but is now on the verge of extinction. We want to promote such endangered instruments through our music.”

“Parents bring their children who are interested in learning how to play the rubab to us. Even girls are wanting to learn it. We tell them to make use of technology and learn. Kids today have a lot more exposure — there are instrument shops and online tutorials. I tell them that during the first two months, you will have a love-hate relationship with an instrument where it will annoy you and irritate you to the brink. But once you pass that and it starts to make sense, there is no stopping you two from falling in love with each other. When we started, the situation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) was not very conducive for art and especially performing arts such as music. We have, in our humble way, tried to build the image of our nation as a whole and, in particular, the society of K-P. Our music breaks stereotypes. We have done tours of the United States (US) twice and also performed across the United Kingdom (UK). People were amazed when they found where we came from. We feel like our music provided us a platform for a multidimensional impact.”

“Music and dance is part of the eugenics of Pakhtuns. In villages, they play drums and do the attan dance even when someone returns from hajj. They say that the ultimate torture for a khattak would be to tie him to a tree and play music around him.”

“We never imagined that one day we will win the most prestigious industry award. It sure feels good but when we started, such awards were not there to aspire for. If we had this award in mind from the beginning, our approach would have been different. But we just wanted to have fun with our music and let people enjoy it. To date we have tried to keep the raw sound of our music intact. We are still very selective about where we perform. Mostly we perform at venues where we get an audience that takes our music further.”

“Our perception about Coke Studio would have been different if we had not performed there. We shared our sound with them and there was a lot of collaboration. All acts do their own part so you cannot blame the producers if something doesn’t work. We are speaking from our experience of working with both Zohaib Kazi and Ali Hamza. Ali is a musician we all look up to and he told us to just do what we do best. They have 20 days to record 70 artists. Every artist comes with his or her own style. You give a few takes and then everything needs to change — the instruments change, the entire dynamics change. You cannot expect 100 hit songs from every season. You would only like two or three songs from an artist’s album. You will never equally like every song of an album. Same is the case with Coke Studio.”

Prime Minister (PM) Imran Khan began his historic speech to the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) last week with climate change, calling it one of the “most urgent problems the world must address”. Climate change was of course on the agenda of this year’s global leaders gathering in New York. But to be fair Khan has noted the importance of climate change in several of his earlier speeches to the nation as well. https://twitter.com/PTIofficial/status/1177598168344735746?s=20 His political party, to its credit, has been one of the first in the country to talk about climate change. And they have transformed those talks into action with the Billion Tree Tsunami project in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (K-P). The PM referred to this project, which is now being scaled up to the 10 Billion Tree project, in his UNGA speech. However, aside from planting trees, what more can Pakistan do to protect its people, as one of the countries that will be the most impacted? The PM pointed out in his speech that Pakistan is already in the top-10 list of countries that are the most affected by climate change. The list he was referring to was from the Germanwatch Annual Report, ‘The Long-Term Climate Risk Index: 10 countries most affected from 1998 to 2017 from climate related disasters.’ Pakistan ranks number eighth on this list. The report states that Pakistan has suffered 145 disasters with 512 deaths and total losses of 3826 million US dollars over a 20 year period. While the villagers in the north and south of the country are on the frontlines of a changing climate, its impacts can also be felt across the agricultural plains, the country’s breadbasket. According to Malik Amin Aslam, the advisor to the PM on climate change,

“Almost five to six percent of our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is washed away every year. Climate change is a reality for us.”

“Pakistan may not be a massive emitter of greenhouse gasses, but our population and economy are bearing a disproportionate burden as a consequence of global greenhouse emissions. Nevertheless, we believe that Pakistan’s federal, provincial and local governments, as well as ordinary citizens, must accept responsibility and play their part in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. It is for this reason that we protest. Pakistan’s Climate Change Policy, 2012, to the extent that it is implemented at all, is ignorant of the growing climate challenges in the country.”

“The national climate policy needs to be reconfigured and weaned from its reactive and diagnostic stance towards a proactive and substantive one. The government still sees climate change as a threat that needs to be coped with by attracting global support. The private sector still sees climate change either as a corporate responsibility issue or as a potential source for subsidies, but not as a potential source of profitability, exports or industrial growth.”

Successive Afghan governments, since Pakistan’s founding in 1947, have remained self-proclaimed champions of Pakistani Pashtuns’ rights. The basis on which Afghan officials (and part of the public alike) have shown interest in Pakistani Pashtuns is the assumption that Pakistani Pashtuns are an oppressed people. The source of the oppression, the argument goes, is the Punjab province. Bilateral Afghan-Pakistan tensions did not begin after the 1978 communist coup in Kabul or the subsequent Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, when Afghan Mujahideen and refugees fled to Pakistan. Afghan-Pak tensions had begun in 1947, when Afghanistan started insisting that Pakistan give its Pashtuns the right to self-determination, thus giving birth to the so-called “Pashtunistan” issue. Afghanistan also unilaterally announced that it no longer recognised the border with Pakistan. Although Afghanistan remained neutral in all of the Indo-Pak wars, its interference in Pakistan has cost it dearly. First, in the 1950s and 1960s, Afghanistan unnecessarily deteriorated relations to the brink of war with Pakistan — on whom it depended for access to the Karachi seaport — bringing Afghanistan closer to the Soviet Union. Second, Afghanistan’s interference in Pakistan prompted the ‘India-centric’ Pakistan defence and foreign policy establishment to try to install a ‘friendly’ government in Kabul, which would neither interfere in Pakistani affairs, nor align with India against Pakistan. Despite having been at war since 1978, Afghanistan continues to interfere in Pakistani Pashtuns’ matters. Lately, the emergence of the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) has provided Afghanistan with yet another lifeline to remain invested in the Pashtun cause in Pakistan. History and facts on the ground, however, call into question Afghanistan’s position on Pakistani Pashtuns.

First: Afghanistan’s troublesome history with frontier Pashtuns

Second: Four things Afghans need to understand about Pakistani Pashtuns

Third: Supporting PTM is counterproductive

از صد خویش یک همسایه پیش

A neighbour is closer than a hundred relatives

The rapid increase in cases of COVID-19 forced the Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) to declare a health emergency and order a provincial lockdown, while citizens were ordered to self-quarantine and observe social distancing, much like the rest of Pakistan. The sudden declaration, followed by an immediate lockdown, coupled with media reports that update figures by the hour, the amount of panic and fear among the people is palpable. But the reason behind the panic can differ from person to person, depending on the financial stability of their household. For some, just accessing basic necessities has become a problem, as when the initial lockdown was announced, some people started hoarding while others did not pay heed to the seriousness of the situation and were greeted by empty stores later. Some did not have the luxury to stock up on items as their financial situations did not allow them to do so.  Even though shops have since then been restocked, some of them are selling basic food goods at exuberant prices, adding to the dilemma of many. The situation is particularly bad for those on daily wages. Despite repeated government warnings, pharmacies are withholding basic protective masks and sanitizers, only to sell them at high prices, while some mill owners were even caught deeming flour to be at a different quality than it was.  Furthermore it is being reported that prices for basic commodities have gone up by 10 to 15 per cent. In Peshawar, the prices of pulses, flour, beef and sugarcane have all been increased by Rs20 to 30 per kilogramme without an approval from the district administration. Prices of ghee (clarified butter), lentils and sugar have also been increased. To the federal government’s credit, it has announced relief programmes, while the K-P government has also announced a relief package that allocates Rs11.40 billion for 1.9 million households. This will include at least 43% of K-P’s population considered to be vulnerable. Such packages take time to be dispensed, especially when the scale is this large and till the logistics are figured out, many people are sleeping hungry. This is despite the fact that many good Samaritans have launched private fundraising drives and are donating not only money but in some cases ration and even hand sanitizers to those in need. The K-P government was also not ready for the rapid shutdown of businesses and many labourers have been left in a lurch. Where the Sindh government imposed the Sindh Epidemic Diseases Act, 2014 and announced that no one shall lay off workers, while offering them paid leaves, regrettably, K-P did not take similar steps.  Reports have since then surfaced about private hospitals allegedly cutting wages and not treating their own nurses who contracted coronavirus. Then there was a doctor, who to register the serious lack of personal protective equipment (PPE), staged photographs of himself attending to a patient in a polythene bag. Even though the pictures were fake, they also highlighted a stark reality, that there is not enough PPE to go around, which is like sentencing our doctors to getting the virus. This problem is unfortunately being faced all over the world. Despite the measures taken by the government, there is a serious lack of implementation even from the general public and we do not seem to be learning from other countries that turned into horrific tragedies. Mosques were being frequented till March 31st, when a ban was imposed, while social distancing is being maintained in the cities, the district administration is having a hard time locking down villages and discouraging them from holding social gatherings. During these hard times we must act as responsible citizens and play our part in restricting the virus as much as we can, lest we also face a situation like Italy's. As William Shakespeare said in his play Hamlet,

“When sorrows come, they come not single spies but in battalions.”